Day Seven – Expectations vs. Reality


Very often you find that in life reality can violently upturn your expectations in life. The Academy Awards are no different. Here is a list of the movies I think the Academy is going to announce as their nominations. This list is slightly different because my first post was looking at my personal preferences. This page is looking at my personal predictions. I think I’ll be surprised in one or two areas, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I get a good 6 or 7 right. We’ll see tomorrow morning.

1)      Avatar

Before Christmas, this was the movie that was destined to be an example of overspending and what happens as a result, failure. Instead, James Cameron has created the most successful movie of all time, upending his previous 12 year reign with Titanic. This movie is very likely to win, so a nomination should come as no surprise.

2)      Up In the Air

A clear front runner, this movie has received all kinds of accolades and I wish I still could see it. This has won some of the big awards that occur pre-Oscars so expect this to be in the top three contenders of the 10 nominations.

3)      The Hurt Locker

This is the dark horse of the three big named contenders. However, the more I hear about this movie, the more I want to see it. I actually went to Blockbuster to pay for the rental and take the movie off my Netflix queue, but they were out of Blu Ray’s for it there, too. The movie is supposed to be excessively tense and so well constructed, a lack of nomination would be a curveball.

4)      The Hangover

This is one nomination prediction that could bite me. Despite the Golden Globe win for Best Picture in Comedy or Musical, comedies like this are typically an afterthought to dramas with the Academy. This year, it may be no different. A smaller drama like Invictus or An Education could easily wipe out the chance of comedy truly getting a shot at what they have deserved for years.

5)      Star Trek

The one reason this one might be the other prediction likely to make me wrong is this. 2009 was one of the best years for Science Fiction and Fantasy since 2001-2003 when we graced with the greatest trilogy of all time, The Lord of the Rings. Second is Star Wars because of the Ewoks. How would you have liked it if in Return of the King Gandalph and Aragorn led the charge with all of Hobbiton as their primary assault force? I digress. While there was tons of great science fiction, it isn’t exactly the biggest genre to win big. All three (Avatar, District 9, and Star Trek) could cancel each other out and leave room for more dramas no one has seen and the public really doesn’t care about, sorry if that offends you. It’s just the truth.

6)      District 9

The reason this movie has the edge over Star Trek is that it was just slightly less popcorn fare than Star Trek. Not by much, but it had a bolder statement and more originality in vision. What may knock this out of the ten nominations is if the Academy just gives Avatar the votes and that is the representative of the genre.

7)      Precious

This was initially more likely to get screenplay and acting accolades. However, some good wins in other awards show will help solidify this movie as a formidable nomination. A win would be a very large curveball.

8)      Inglorious Basterds

This is another shoe-in for a nomination. However, one thing the Academy loves to do with dark horses is acknowledge them in screenplays or acting. Christopher Waltz might as well make some space on his shelf for an Oscar in what will be the easiest prediction in Supporting Actor category. He has won nearly every award in that category so far. While this will get some nominations, it will probably win in the smaller categories.

9)      Up

This movie was an amazing, darn near perfect family film. I believe that it will earn a nomination, but will probably be the lowest on the totem pole of votes for the sole reason that it will win Best Animated Feature handedly, thus cancelling any hopes it has for the big win.

10)   (500) Days of Summer

This is another one that I fear I may be wrong in. While it was innovative and amazing, it is still a summer, romantic comedy. Romantic comedy is like stamping a movie with a “Don’t Vote for Me” stamp. However, the sheer quality of this product is where it will stand out and get into the nominations.

So there are my predictions for tomorrow. I will give a brief update tomorrow to see how I do. Have ideas, disagreements, and debates? Chime in on the comments section.

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